Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate, BBC Weather, and the UK Met Office indicate Istanbul highs of roughly 25–28°C on August 15, 2026, under scattered clouds and moderate northerly winds. These align with late-summer Mediterranean conditions, where the Bosphorus and adjacent seas generate cooling sea breezes that cap daytime heating even under mostly clear skies. The market's heavy weighting toward 26°C (52.5%) reflects model consensus around this central value, with lower probabilities for 25°C and 27°C capturing minor forecast spread from variables like exact wind strength or localized cloud development. Historical August averages near 28°C provide context, but current short-range guidance shows no heatwave signals or anomalous high-pressure setup that would push extremes higher. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalyst that could shift these implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 15?
26°C 52%
25°C 21%
27°C 20%
24°C 4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
21%
26°C
52%
27°C
20%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 52%
25°C 21%
27°C 20%
24°C 4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$237 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$233 ปริมาณ
2%
24°C
$327 ปริมาณ
4%
25°C
$520 ปริมาณ
21%
26°C
$1,707 ปริมาณ
52%
27°C
$423 ปริมาณ
20%
28°C
$446 ปริมาณ
4%
29°C
$247 ปริมาณ
1%
30°C
$49 ปริมาณ
1%
31°C
$133 ปริมาณ
<1%
32°C or higher
$215 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate, BBC Weather, and the UK Met Office indicate Istanbul highs of roughly 25–28°C on August 15, 2026, under scattered clouds and moderate northerly winds. These align with late-summer Mediterranean conditions, where the Bosphorus and adjacent seas generate cooling sea breezes that cap daytime heating even under mostly clear skies.
The market's heavy weighting toward 26°C (52.5%) reflects model consensus around this central value, with lower probabilities for 25°C and 27°C capturing minor forecast spread from variables like exact wind strength or localized cloud development. Historical August averages near 28°C provide context, but current short-range guidance shows no heatwave signals or anomalous high-pressure setup that would push extremes higher. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalyst that could shift these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,537วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate, BBC Weather, and the UK Met Office indicate Istanbul highs of roughly 25–28°C on August 15, 2026, under scattered clouds and moderate northerly winds. These align with late-summer Mediterranean conditions, where the Bosphorus and adjacent seas generate cooling sea breezes that cap daytime heating even under mostly clear skies.
The market's heavy weighting toward 26°C (52.5%) reflects model consensus around this central value, with lower probabilities for 25°C and 27°C capturing minor forecast spread from variables like exact wind strength or localized cloud development. Historical August averages near 28°C provide context, but current short-range guidance shows no heatwave signals or anomalous high-pressure setup that would push extremes higher. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalyst that could shift these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,537วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate, BBC Weather, and the UK Met Office indicate Istanbul highs of roughly 25–28°C on August 15, 2026, under scattered clouds and moderate northerly winds. These align with late-summer Mediterranean conditions, where the Bosphorus and adjacent seas generate cooling sea breezes that cap daytime heating even under mostly clear skies. The market's heavy weighting toward 26°C (52.5%) reflects model consensus around this central value, with lower probabilities for 25°C and 27°C capturing minor forecast spread from variables like exact wind strength or localized cloud development. Historical August averages near 28°C provide context, but current short-range guidance shows no heatwave signals or anomalous high-pressure setup that would push extremes higher. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalyst that could shift these implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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