Recent Met Office and ensemble forecasts for London on August 15, 2026, indicate a mild overnight period with minimum temperatures stabilizing near 20 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, establishing the dominant market-implied outcome. This positioning reflects the consensus from official guidance showing limited radiative cooling and above-average nighttime readings consistent with the broader summer pattern of elevated minima. Traders have incorporated these model runs, which show little spread around the 20 °C threshold, into the 94 % probability. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected influx of cooler northerly air or clearer conditions promoting greater heat loss, potentially lowering the official minimum by 1–2 °C before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in London on August 15?
Lowest temperature in London on August 15?
20°C 96%
19°C 4%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$16,187 ปริมาณ
$16,187 ปริมาณ
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
96%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
20°C 96%
19°C 4%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$16,187 ปริมาณ
$16,187 ปริมาณ
Aug 15, 2026
14°C or below
$1,032 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$572 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C
$464 ปริมาณ
<1%
17°C
$831 ปริมาณ
1%
18°C
$1,592 ปริมาณ
1%
19°C
$2,977 ปริมาณ
4%
20°C
$4,746 ปริมาณ
96%
21°C
$2,463 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$910 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$335 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C or higher
$265 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ensemble forecasts for London on August 15, 2026, indicate a mild overnight period with minimum temperatures stabilizing near 20 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, establishing the dominant market-implied outcome. This positioning reflects the consensus from official guidance showing limited radiative cooling and above-average nighttime readings consistent with the broader summer pattern of elevated minima. Traders have incorporated these model runs, which show little spread around the 20 °C threshold, into the 94 % probability. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected influx of cooler northerly air or clearer conditions promoting greater heat loss, potentially lowering the official minimum by 1–2 °C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,187วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ensemble forecasts for London on August 15, 2026, indicate a mild overnight period with minimum temperatures stabilizing near 20 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, establishing the dominant market-implied outcome. This positioning reflects the consensus from official guidance showing limited radiative cooling and above-average nighttime readings consistent with the broader summer pattern of elevated minima. Traders have incorporated these model runs, which show little spread around the 20 °C threshold, into the 94 % probability. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected influx of cooler northerly air or clearer conditions promoting greater heat loss, potentially lowering the official minimum by 1–2 °C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,187วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and ensemble forecasts for London on August 15, 2026, indicate a mild overnight period with minimum temperatures stabilizing near 20 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, establishing the dominant market-implied outcome. This positioning reflects the consensus from official guidance showing limited radiative cooling and above-average nighttime readings consistent with the broader summer pattern of elevated minima. Traders have incorporated these model runs, which show little spread around the 20 °C threshold, into the 94 % probability. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected influx of cooler northerly air or clearer conditions promoting greater heat loss, potentially lowering the official minimum by 1–2 °C before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย