Persistent high pressure and a warm air mass tied to the ongoing Iberian heat dome have elevated forecast highs for Madrid on August 13, 2026, with AEMET and ECMWF guidance converging on daytime maxima of 38–40 °C under clear skies and light winds. These conditions favor strong daytime heating and limited mixing, pushing temperatures well above the August climatological average of roughly 32–34 °C. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, supporting the market’s emphasis on 39 °C (46.5 %) and 40 °C (35.0 %) as the dominant outcomes, while lower or higher extremes remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of significant cooling mechanisms through midweek.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
39°C 47%
40°C 35%
38°C 9%
41°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
9%
39°C
47%
40°C
35%
41°C
6%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
1%
39°C 47%
40°C 35%
38°C 9%
41°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
$25 ปริมาณ
1%
36°C
$25 ปริมาณ
1%
37°C
$29 ปริมาณ
3%
38°C
$65 ปริมาณ
9%
39°C
$122 ปริมาณ
47%
40°C
$124 ปริมาณ
35%
41°C
$56 ปริมาณ
6%
42°C
$77 ปริมาณ
2%
43°C
$49 ปริมาณ
1%
44°C
$149 ปริมาณ
<1%
45°C or higher
$22 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and a warm air mass tied to the ongoing Iberian heat dome have elevated forecast highs for Madrid on August 13, 2026, with AEMET and ECMWF guidance converging on daytime maxima of 38–40 °C under clear skies and light winds. These conditions favor strong daytime heating and limited mixing, pushing temperatures well above the August climatological average of roughly 32–34 °C. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, supporting the market’s emphasis on 39 °C (46.5 %) and 40 °C (35.0 %) as the dominant outcomes, while lower or higher extremes remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of significant cooling mechanisms through midweek.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$744วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and a warm air mass tied to the ongoing Iberian heat dome have elevated forecast highs for Madrid on August 13, 2026, with AEMET and ECMWF guidance converging on daytime maxima of 38–40 °C under clear skies and light winds. These conditions favor strong daytime heating and limited mixing, pushing temperatures well above the August climatological average of roughly 32–34 °C. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, supporting the market’s emphasis on 39 °C (46.5 %) and 40 °C (35.0 %) as the dominant outcomes, while lower or higher extremes remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of significant cooling mechanisms through midweek.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$744วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and a warm air mass tied to the ongoing Iberian heat dome have elevated forecast highs for Madrid on August 13, 2026, with AEMET and ECMWF guidance converging on daytime maxima of 38–40 °C under clear skies and light winds. These conditions favor strong daytime heating and limited mixing, pushing temperatures well above the August climatological average of roughly 32–34 °C. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, supporting the market’s emphasis on 39 °C (46.5 %) and 40 °C (35.0 %) as the dominant outcomes, while lower or higher extremes remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of significant cooling mechanisms through midweek.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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