Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Paris overnight lows near 20°C on August 15, placing the outcome comfortably below the 22°C threshold and driving the 82.5% market-implied probability. A post-heatwave cooling trend, with increased cloud cover and a shift to northwesterly flow, supports this moderation after recent daytime peaks above 30°C. Historical August minima average 15–18°C, so the projected value remains above the seasonal norm yet aligns with short-range guidance showing limited variability across runs. Traders are weighting the high-resolution model consensus and the proximity to the resolution date, which reduces uncertainty in the final observed minimum from official stations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 15?
22°C or below 83%
23°C 11%
24°C 3.0%
25°C 1.2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
83%
23°C
11%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
22°C or below 83%
23°C 11%
24°C 3.0%
25°C 1.2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$2,220 ปริมาณ
83%
23°C
$1,146 ปริมาณ
11%
24°C
$468 ปริมาณ
3%
25°C
$339 ปริมาณ
1%
26°C
$187 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$289 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$251 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$277 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$282 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$392 ปริมาณ
<1%
32°C or higher
$377 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Paris overnight lows near 20°C on August 15, placing the outcome comfortably below the 22°C threshold and driving the 82.5% market-implied probability. A post-heatwave cooling trend, with increased cloud cover and a shift to northwesterly flow, supports this moderation after recent daytime peaks above 30°C. Historical August minima average 15–18°C, so the projected value remains above the seasonal norm yet aligns with short-range guidance showing limited variability across runs. Traders are weighting the high-resolution model consensus and the proximity to the resolution date, which reduces uncertainty in the final observed minimum from official stations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,228วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Paris overnight lows near 20°C on August 15, placing the outcome comfortably below the 22°C threshold and driving the 82.5% market-implied probability. A post-heatwave cooling trend, with increased cloud cover and a shift to northwesterly flow, supports this moderation after recent daytime peaks above 30°C. Historical August minima average 15–18°C, so the projected value remains above the seasonal norm yet aligns with short-range guidance showing limited variability across runs. Traders are weighting the high-resolution model consensus and the proximity to the resolution date, which reduces uncertainty in the final observed minimum from official stations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,228วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Paris overnight lows near 20°C on August 15, placing the outcome comfortably below the 22°C threshold and driving the 82.5% market-implied probability. A post-heatwave cooling trend, with increased cloud cover and a shift to northwesterly flow, supports this moderation after recent daytime peaks above 30°C. Historical August minima average 15–18°C, so the projected value remains above the seasonal norm yet aligns with short-range guidance showing limited variability across runs. Traders are weighting the high-resolution model consensus and the proximity to the resolution date, which reduces uncertainty in the final observed minimum from official stations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย