Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for Chicago on August 12, supporting market-implied odds favoring 80–83°F highs. These conditions, driven by a lingering mid-level trough and modest moisture, contrast with clearer, warmer setups that could push readings to 84–85°F. Lake Michigan’s influence via lake breezes further caps peak temperatures near the shoreline and O’Hare station, aligning with the 1991–2020 August normal of roughly 83°F. Model spread on convective timing and coverage creates the close contest between 82–83°F (35%) and 80–81°F (26.5%), with higher outcomes discounted absent strong ridging. Updated NWS forecasts and short-range guidance expected tomorrow will refine resolution criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Chicago on August 12?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 12?
82-83°F 35%
80-81°F 24%
84-85°F 21%
78-79°F 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
77°F or below
3%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
35%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
6%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 35%
80-81°F 24%
84-85°F 21%
78-79°F 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
77°F or below
$39 ปริมาณ
3%
78-79°F
$509 ปริมาณ
10%
80-81°F
$341 ปริมาณ
24%
82-83°F
$89 ปริมาณ
35%
84-85°F
$214 ปริมาณ
21%
86-87°F
$259 ปริมาณ
6%
88-89°F
$192 ปริมาณ
2%
90-91°F
$900 ปริมาณ
1%
92-93°F
$5 ปริมาณ
<1%
94-95°F
$12 ปริมาณ
<1%
96°F or higher
$1 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for Chicago on August 12, supporting market-implied odds favoring 80–83°F highs. These conditions, driven by a lingering mid-level trough and modest moisture, contrast with clearer, warmer setups that could push readings to 84–85°F. Lake Michigan’s influence via lake breezes further caps peak temperatures near the shoreline and O’Hare station, aligning with the 1991–2020 August normal of roughly 83°F. Model spread on convective timing and coverage creates the close contest between 82–83°F (35%) and 80–81°F (26.5%), with higher outcomes discounted absent strong ridging. Updated NWS forecasts and short-range guidance expected tomorrow will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,562วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for Chicago on August 12, supporting market-implied odds favoring 80–83°F highs. These conditions, driven by a lingering mid-level trough and modest moisture, contrast with clearer, warmer setups that could push readings to 84–85°F. Lake Michigan’s influence via lake breezes further caps peak temperatures near the shoreline and O’Hare station, aligning with the 1991–2020 August normal of roughly 83°F. Model spread on convective timing and coverage creates the close contest between 82–83°F (35%) and 80–81°F (26.5%), with higher outcomes discounted absent strong ridging. Updated NWS forecasts and short-range guidance expected tomorrow will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,562วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for Chicago on August 12, supporting market-implied odds favoring 80–83°F highs. These conditions, driven by a lingering mid-level trough and modest moisture, contrast with clearer, warmer setups that could push readings to 84–85°F. Lake Michigan’s influence via lake breezes further caps peak temperatures near the shoreline and O’Hare station, aligning with the 1991–2020 August normal of roughly 83°F. Model spread on convective timing and coverage creates the close contest between 82–83°F (35%) and 80–81°F (26.5%), with higher outcomes discounted absent strong ridging. Updated NWS forecasts and short-range guidance expected tomorrow will refine resolution criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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