The Met Office's August 11 assessment that the UK mean summer temperature stands at 16.10°C—already 1.51°C above the 1991-2020 average—drives the 85.5% market-implied odds for a new record. With only near-average conditions required through the rest of August to surpass the 2025 benchmark of 16.12°C, second-warmest June and July readings plus an imminent heatwave have locked in the trajectory. Warmer North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and persistent high-pressure patterns have amplified extremes, consistent with long-term climate trends that elevate the baseline for heatwaves. Final Met Office verification in early September will resolve the market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
86% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 1, 2026
86% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.The Met Office's August 11 assessment that the UK mean summer temperature stands at 16.10°C—already 1.51°C above the 1991-2020 average—drives the 85.5% market-implied odds for a new record. With only near-average conditions required through the rest of August to surpass the 2025 benchmark of 16.12°C, second-warmest June and July readings plus an imminent heatwave have locked in the trajectory. Warmer North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and persistent high-pressure patterns have amplified extremes, consistent with long-term climate trends that elevate the baseline for heatwaves. Final Met Office verification in early September will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$331วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txtResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.The Met Office's August 11 assessment that the UK mean summer temperature stands at 16.10°C—already 1.51°C above the 1991-2020 average—drives the 85.5% market-implied odds for a new record. With only near-average conditions required through the rest of August to surpass the 2025 benchmark of 16.12°C, second-warmest June and July readings plus an imminent heatwave have locked in the trajectory. Warmer North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and persistent high-pressure patterns have amplified extremes, consistent with long-term climate trends that elevate the baseline for heatwaves. Final Met Office verification in early September will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$331วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txtResolver
0x65070BE91...The Met Office's August 11 assessment that the UK mean summer temperature stands at 16.10°C—already 1.51°C above the 1991-2020 average—drives the 85.5% market-implied odds for a new record. With only near-average conditions required through the rest of August to surpass the 2025 benchmark of 16.12°C, second-warmest June and July readings plus an imminent heatwave have locked in the trajectory. Warmer North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and persistent high-pressure patterns have amplified extremes, consistent with long-term climate trends that elevate the baseline for heatwaves. Final Met Office verification in early September will resolve the market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย