**Ongoing heatwave conditions and short-range KMA forecasts centered on 33–34°C highs are driving the tight clustering around 32–33°C outcomes, with traders weighing model spread and coastal moderation at Incheon.** Persistent high pressure and subsidence warming have sustained elevated temperatures across the Korean Peninsula since early August, following the national record of 42.5°C in Yangsan. For August 12, official guidance shows mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk, yet ensemble differences in the timing of any sea-breeze influence or slight mid-level moisture increase create a narrow range of possible maxima. Incheon’s maritime setting typically trims peaks by 1–2°C relative to inland Seoul, contributing to the market-implied preference for the lower end of the official 34°C projection while still acknowledging upside risk if insolation remains strong.