Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution runs place the Paris minimum temperature for August 12 most likely between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These model outputs align directly with the market’s tight clustering around 18 °C and 19 °C. Typical August climatology near 15–16 °C at the official Montsouris station is offset upward by the urban heat-island effect and current boundary-layer moisture, while small uncertainties in exact frontal timing and cloud persistence keep the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other. Updated model guidance expected overnight will determine whether the distribution shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
19°C 43%
18°C 40%
17°C 8%
20°C 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
5%
17°C
8%
18°C
40%
19°C
43%
20°C
7%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 43%
18°C 40%
17°C 8%
20°C 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
$51 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$157 ปริมาณ
1%
16°C
$75 ปริมาณ
5%
17°C
$290 ปริมาณ
8%
18°C
$86 ปริมาณ
40%
19°C
$459 ปริมาณ
43%
20°C
$29 ปริมาณ
7%
21°C
$54 ปริมาณ
3%
22°C
$25 ปริมาณ
1%
23°C
$38 ปริมาณ
1%
24°C or higher
$39 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution runs place the Paris minimum temperature for August 12 most likely between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These model outputs align directly with the market’s tight clustering around 18 °C and 19 °C. Typical August climatology near 15–16 °C at the official Montsouris station is offset upward by the urban heat-island effect and current boundary-layer moisture, while small uncertainties in exact frontal timing and cloud persistence keep the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other. Updated model guidance expected overnight will determine whether the distribution shifts.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,305วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution runs place the Paris minimum temperature for August 12 most likely between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These model outputs align directly with the market’s tight clustering around 18 °C and 19 °C. Typical August climatology near 15–16 °C at the official Montsouris station is offset upward by the urban heat-island effect and current boundary-layer moisture, while small uncertainties in exact frontal timing and cloud persistence keep the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other. Updated model guidance expected overnight will determine whether the distribution shifts.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,305วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution runs place the Paris minimum temperature for August 12 most likely between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. These model outputs align directly with the market’s tight clustering around 18 °C and 19 °C. Typical August climatology near 15–16 °C at the official Montsouris station is offset upward by the urban heat-island effect and current boundary-layer moisture, while small uncertainties in exact frontal timing and cloud persistence keep the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other. Updated model guidance expected overnight will determine whether the distribution shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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