Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models point to above-normal nighttime temperatures for August 12, 2026, supporting the strong trader consensus around a 30°C low. Persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated sea surface temperatures, and seasonal warming trends under ENSO-neutral to positive conditions have limited overnight radiative cooling and kept humidity high, reducing the chance of drops below 29°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 26–28°C, but current model runs and the HKO’s August–October outlook for normal-to-above-normal readings have shifted implied probabilities sharply higher for warmer thresholds. No significant monsoon surge or typhoon influence is expected in the next 24–48 hours to alter this pattern.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?
29°C 14%
28°C 3%
26°C 1.3%
27°C 1.2%
$61,366 ปริมาณ
$61,366 ปริมาณ
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
14%
30°C
58%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 14%
28°C 3%
26°C 1.3%
27°C 1.2%
$61,366 ปริมาณ
$61,366 ปริมาณ
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
$1,720 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$3,309 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$5,420 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$7,108 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$12,347 ปริมาณ
3%
29°C
$12,414 ปริมาณ
14%
30°C
$12,951 ปริมาณ
58%
31°C
$4,153 ปริมาณ
<1%
32°C
$652 ปริมาณ
<1%
33°C
$612 ปริมาณ
<1%
34°C or higher
$682 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models point to above-normal nighttime temperatures for August 12, 2026, supporting the strong trader consensus around a 30°C low. Persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated sea surface temperatures, and seasonal warming trends under ENSO-neutral to positive conditions have limited overnight radiative cooling and kept humidity high, reducing the chance of drops below 29°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 26–28°C, but current model runs and the HKO’s August–October outlook for normal-to-above-normal readings have shifted implied probabilities sharply higher for warmer thresholds. No significant monsoon surge or typhoon influence is expected in the next 24–48 hours to alter this pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$61,366วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models point to above-normal nighttime temperatures for August 12, 2026, supporting the strong trader consensus around a 30°C low. Persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated sea surface temperatures, and seasonal warming trends under ENSO-neutral to positive conditions have limited overnight radiative cooling and kept humidity high, reducing the chance of drops below 29°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 26–28°C, but current model runs and the HKO’s August–October outlook for normal-to-above-normal readings have shifted implied probabilities sharply higher for warmer thresholds. No significant monsoon surge or typhoon influence is expected in the next 24–48 hours to alter this pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$61,366วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models point to above-normal nighttime temperatures for August 12, 2026, supporting the strong trader consensus around a 30°C low. Persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated sea surface temperatures, and seasonal warming trends under ENSO-neutral to positive conditions have limited overnight radiative cooling and kept humidity high, reducing the chance of drops below 29°C. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 26–28°C, but current model runs and the HKO’s August–October outlook for normal-to-above-normal readings have shifted implied probabilities sharply higher for warmer thresholds. No significant monsoon surge or typhoon influence is expected in the next 24–48 hours to alter this pattern.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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