Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate a high-pressure ridge over western Europe driving southerly warm-air advection and mostly clear skies, positioning Paris for an afternoon maximum near 34–35°C on August 12. These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with limited cloud cover or mixing, consistent with the market-implied probabilities that assign roughly three-quarters probability to 34–36°C. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty from minor shifts in the ridge axis or boundary-layer moisture, which could trim or boost the peak by 1–2°C, while historical August baselines around 25°C underscore the anomalous warmth tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 12?
35°C 48%
34°C 30%
36°C 15%
33°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
8%
34°C
30%
35°C
48%
36°C
15%
37°C
4%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
1%
35°C 48%
34°C 30%
36°C 15%
33°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
$1,519 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$61 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$541 ปริมาณ
1%
32°C
$103 ปริมาณ
2%
33°C
$155 ปริมาณ
8%
34°C
$260 ปริมาณ
30%
35°C
$815 ปริมาณ
48%
36°C
$99 ปริมาณ
15%
37°C
$65 ปริมาณ
4%
38°C
$112 ปริมาณ
2%
39°C or higher
$61 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate a high-pressure ridge over western Europe driving southerly warm-air advection and mostly clear skies, positioning Paris for an afternoon maximum near 34–35°C on August 12. These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with limited cloud cover or mixing, consistent with the market-implied probabilities that assign roughly three-quarters probability to 34–36°C. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty from minor shifts in the ridge axis or boundary-layer moisture, which could trim or boost the peak by 1–2°C, while historical August baselines around 25°C underscore the anomalous warmth tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,644วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate a high-pressure ridge over western Europe driving southerly warm-air advection and mostly clear skies, positioning Paris for an afternoon maximum near 34–35°C on August 12. These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with limited cloud cover or mixing, consistent with the market-implied probabilities that assign roughly three-quarters probability to 34–36°C. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty from minor shifts in the ridge axis or boundary-layer moisture, which could trim or boost the peak by 1–2°C, while historical August baselines around 25°C underscore the anomalous warmth tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,644วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate a high-pressure ridge over western Europe driving southerly warm-air advection and mostly clear skies, positioning Paris for an afternoon maximum near 34–35°C on August 12. These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with limited cloud cover or mixing, consistent with the market-implied probabilities that assign roughly three-quarters probability to 34–36°C. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty from minor shifts in the ridge axis or boundary-layer moisture, which could trim or boost the peak by 1–2°C, while historical August baselines around 25°C underscore the anomalous warmth tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย