Recent polls place Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party at 22–25 Knesset seats, implying a national vote share clustered near 18–21 percent as the October 27 election approaches. This range aligns with the market’s tightest bins, where trader consensus reflects persistent volatility in opposition voting patterns, candidate-list finalization, and competition from B’Yachad and smaller Zionist lists. Small shifts in turnout among secular and centrist blocs, or changes in threshold-crossing by fringe parties, can reallocate several percentage points. Historical precedent for late swings in Israeli campaigns and the absence of a decisive polling lead sustain the balanced probabilities across the 16–24 percent outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIsrael Election: Yashar vote share?
Israel Election: Yashar vote share?
20-22% 35%
<16% 34%
18-20% 30%
24%+ 30%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 30, 2026
<16%
34%
16-18%
25%
18-20%
30%
20-22%
35%
22-24%
29%
24%+
30%
20-22% 35%
<16% 34%
18-20% 30%
24%+ 30%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 30, 2026
<16%
$0 ปริมาณ
34%
16-18%
$0 ปริมาณ
25%
18-20%
$0 ปริมาณ
30%
20-22%
$0 ปริมาณ
35%
22-24%
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
24%+
$0 ปริมาณ
30%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls place Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party at 22–25 Knesset seats, implying a national vote share clustered near 18–21 percent as the October 27 election approaches. This range aligns with the market’s tightest bins, where trader consensus reflects persistent volatility in opposition voting patterns, candidate-list finalization, and competition from B’Yachad and smaller Zionist lists. Small shifts in turnout among secular and centrist blocs, or changes in threshold-crossing by fringe parties, can reallocate several percentage points. Historical precedent for late swings in Israeli campaigns and the absence of a decisive polling lead sustain the balanced probabilities across the 16–24 percent outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls place Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party at 22–25 Knesset seats, implying a national vote share clustered near 18–21 percent as the October 27 election approaches. This range aligns with the market’s tightest bins, where trader consensus reflects persistent volatility in opposition voting patterns, candidate-list finalization, and competition from B’Yachad and smaller Zionist lists. Small shifts in turnout among secular and centrist blocs, or changes in threshold-crossing by fringe parties, can reallocate several percentage points. Historical precedent for late swings in Israeli campaigns and the absence of a decisive polling lead sustain the balanced probabilities across the 16–24 percent outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party at 22–25 Knesset seats, implying a national vote share clustered near 18–21 percent as the October 27 election approaches. This range aligns with the market’s tightest bins, where trader consensus reflects persistent volatility in opposition voting patterns, candidate-list finalization, and competition from B’Yachad and smaller Zionist lists. Small shifts in turnout among secular and centrist blocs, or changes in threshold-crossing by fringe parties, can reallocate several percentage points. Historical precedent for late swings in Israeli campaigns and the absence of a decisive polling lead sustain the balanced probabilities across the 16–24 percent outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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