The 25th Knesset completed its full term and dissolved in July 2026, with elections scheduled for October 27. This timeline leaves roughly two months for the new 120-member legislature to convene, conduct coalition negotiations, and hold a confidence vote under Basic Law: The Government. Recent polls indicate a fragmented outcome, with the pro-Netanyahu bloc projected near 49–51 seats and opposition parties around 57, both short of a 61-seat majority and divided by policy disputes over security, conscription, and alliances. Historical patterns of Israeli government formation show multi-week or multi-month talks in similar deadlocks, increasing the chance that no new coalition secures the required Knesset confidence vote by December 31. Routine opposition no-confidence motions were defeated earlier in 2026, but the post-election transition now dominates trader assessments reflected in the 63% probability on “No.”
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว48% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
48% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 25th Knesset completed its full term and dissolved in July 2026, with elections scheduled for October 27. This timeline leaves roughly two months for the new 120-member legislature to convene, conduct coalition negotiations, and hold a confidence vote under Basic Law: The Government. Recent polls indicate a fragmented outcome, with the pro-Netanyahu bloc projected near 49–51 seats and opposition parties around 57, both short of a 61-seat majority and divided by policy disputes over security, conscription, and alliances. Historical patterns of Israeli government formation show multi-week or multi-month talks in similar deadlocks, increasing the chance that no new coalition secures the required Knesset confidence vote by December 31. Routine opposition no-confidence motions were defeated earlier in 2026, but the post-election transition now dominates trader assessments reflected in the 63% probability on “No.”
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,479วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 25th Knesset completed its full term and dissolved in July 2026, with elections scheduled for October 27. This timeline leaves roughly two months for the new 120-member legislature to convene, conduct coalition negotiations, and hold a confidence vote under Basic Law: The Government. Recent polls indicate a fragmented outcome, with the pro-Netanyahu bloc projected near 49–51 seats and opposition parties around 57, both short of a 61-seat majority and divided by policy disputes over security, conscription, and alliances. Historical patterns of Israeli government formation show multi-week or multi-month talks in similar deadlocks, increasing the chance that no new coalition secures the required Knesset confidence vote by December 31. Routine opposition no-confidence motions were defeated earlier in 2026, but the post-election transition now dominates trader assessments reflected in the 63% probability on “No.”
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,479วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 25th Knesset completed its full term and dissolved in July 2026, with elections scheduled for October 27. This timeline leaves roughly two months for the new 120-member legislature to convene, conduct coalition negotiations, and hold a confidence vote under Basic Law: The Government. Recent polls indicate a fragmented outcome, with the pro-Netanyahu bloc projected near 49–51 seats and opposition parties around 57, both short of a 61-seat majority and divided by policy disputes over security, conscription, and alliances. Historical patterns of Israeli government formation show multi-week or multi-month talks in similar deadlocks, increasing the chance that no new coalition secures the required Knesset confidence vote by December 31. Routine opposition no-confidence motions were defeated earlier in 2026, but the post-election transition now dominates trader assessments reflected in the 63% probability on “No.”
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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