Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus point to overnight lows near 27–28°C on July 6, driven by southeast monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-July climatology, where average minima hover around 26°C amid frequent cloud cover and moisture convergence that narrows day-to-day variability. Subtle differences in model timing of rain versus clearer intervals explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while lower readings would require stronger onshore winds or heavier nocturnal precipitation than currently projected. Official updates through July 5 will refine these thresholds before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?
27°C 28%
30°C 23%
25°C 19%
26°C 18%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 6, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
19%
26°C
18%
27°C
28%
28°C
18%
29°C
14%
30°C
23%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 28%
30°C 23%
25°C 19%
26°C 18%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 6, 2026
22°C or below
$15 ปริมาณ
1%
23°C
$15 ปริมาณ
1%
24°C
$15 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
19%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
18%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
18%
29°C
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
30°C
$5 ปริมาณ
23%
31°C
$0 ปริมาณ
<1%
32°C or higher
$78 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus point to overnight lows near 27–28°C on July 6, driven by southeast monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-July climatology, where average minima hover around 26°C amid frequent cloud cover and moisture convergence that narrows day-to-day variability. Subtle differences in model timing of rain versus clearer intervals explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while lower readings would require stronger onshore winds or heavier nocturnal precipitation than currently projected. Official updates through July 5 will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$83วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus point to overnight lows near 27–28°C on July 6, driven by southeast monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-July climatology, where average minima hover around 26°C amid frequent cloud cover and moisture convergence that narrows day-to-day variability. Subtle differences in model timing of rain versus clearer intervals explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while lower readings would require stronger onshore winds or heavier nocturnal precipitation than currently projected. Official updates through July 5 will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$83วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus point to overnight lows near 27–28°C on July 6, driven by southeast monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-July climatology, where average minima hover around 26°C amid frequent cloud cover and moisture convergence that narrows day-to-day variability. Subtle differences in model timing of rain versus clearer intervals explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while lower readings would require stronger onshore winds or heavier nocturnal precipitation than currently projected. Official updates through July 5 will refine these thresholds before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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