Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July 2026 amid the long-term warming trend, aligning with climatological July highs averaging near 31–32 °C. Short-range model consensus for July 3 shows modest day-to-day variability driven by typical summer monsoon flow, possible afternoon convective clouds or showers, and the urban heat-island effect at the official measurement site. These factors create a narrow distribution centered on 30–32 °C, with traders assigning roughly 75 % combined probability to that band while assigning lower odds to extremes that would require either strong subsidence or an unusually intense heat burst. Updated numerical guidance and any tropical disturbance development in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?
30°C 39%
31°C 37%
29°C 11%
32°C 9%
ใหม่
$43,030 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$43,030 ปริมาณ
Jul 3, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
11%
30°C
39%
31°C
37%
32°C
9%
33°C
3%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 39%
31°C 37%
29°C 11%
32°C 9%
ใหม่
$43,030 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$43,030 ปริมาณ
Jul 3, 2026
25°C or below
$1,839 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$1,467 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$5,542 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$5,827 ปริมาณ
1%
29°C
$4,735 ปริมาณ
11%
30°C
$5,317 ปริมาณ
39%
31°C
$7,661 ปริมาณ
37%
32°C
$3,979 ปริมาณ
9%
33°C
$3,814 ปริมาณ
3%
34°C
$1,249 ปริมาณ
<1%
35°C or higher
$1,599 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July 2026 amid the long-term warming trend, aligning with climatological July highs averaging near 31–32 °C. Short-range model consensus for July 3 shows modest day-to-day variability driven by typical summer monsoon flow, possible afternoon convective clouds or showers, and the urban heat-island effect at the official measurement site. These factors create a narrow distribution centered on 30–32 °C, with traders assigning roughly 75 % combined probability to that band while assigning lower odds to extremes that would require either strong subsidence or an unusually intense heat burst. Updated numerical guidance and any tropical disturbance development in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$43,030วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July 2026 amid the long-term warming trend, aligning with climatological July highs averaging near 31–32 °C. Short-range model consensus for July 3 shows modest day-to-day variability driven by typical summer monsoon flow, possible afternoon convective clouds or showers, and the urban heat-island effect at the official measurement site. These factors create a narrow distribution centered on 30–32 °C, with traders assigning roughly 75 % combined probability to that band while assigning lower odds to extremes that would require either strong subsidence or an unusually intense heat burst. Updated numerical guidance and any tropical disturbance development in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$43,030วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July 2026 amid the long-term warming trend, aligning with climatological July highs averaging near 31–32 °C. Short-range model consensus for July 3 shows modest day-to-day variability driven by typical summer monsoon flow, possible afternoon convective clouds or showers, and the urban heat-island effect at the official measurement site. These factors create a narrow distribution centered on 30–32 °C, with traders assigning roughly 75 % combined probability to that band while assigning lower odds to extremes that would require either strong subsidence or an unusually intense heat burst. Updated numerical guidance and any tropical disturbance development in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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