**Wellington's mid-winter climate and short-term forecast models are the main drivers positioning 13–14 °C as the clear market leaders for the July 4 daily maximum.** In July, Wellington's climatological daytime highs average 12–13 °C, with the 25th–75th percentile range typically spanning roughly 11–14 °C because the surrounding Tasman Sea moderates extremes while southerly or westerly flows can deliver cooler air masses. Current numerical guidance and agency outlooks for the first week of July 2026 converge on a high near or slightly above this normal, with several sources indicating 13 °C and at least one (BBC) showing 14 °C under a mix of sun and cloud with moderate northerly winds. A developing polar airflow and the early stages of an El Niño signal are adding modest downside risk, keeping probabilities for 12 °C or lower non-negligible but secondary. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across much of the North Island, consistent with traders assigning the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 13–14 °C band. Because the market resolves on a single official maximum observation in two days, the tight clustering around the forecast consensus reflects both the reliability of short-range models at this lead time and the limited scope for rapid warming or cooling before the date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on July 4?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 4?
14°C 69%
13°C 31%
15°C 2.7%
16°C <1%
ใหม่
$45,780 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$45,780 ปริมาณ
Jul 4, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
31%
14°C
69%
15°C
3%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 69%
13°C 31%
15°C 2.7%
16°C <1%
ใหม่
$45,780 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$45,780 ปริมาณ
Jul 4, 2026
8°C or below
$3,098 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$2,767 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$2,721 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$4,516 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$6,886 ปริมาณ
<1%
13°C
$3,767 ปริมาณ
31%
14°C
$8,321 ปริมาณ
69%
15°C
$4,125 ปริมาณ
3%
16°C
$1,593 ปริมาณ
<1%
17°C
$5,163 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C or higher
$2,823 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's mid-winter climate and short-term forecast models are the main drivers positioning 13–14 °C as the clear market leaders for the July 4 daily maximum.** In July, Wellington's climatological daytime highs average 12–13 °C, with the 25th–75th percentile range typically spanning roughly 11–14 °C because the surrounding Tasman Sea moderates extremes while southerly or westerly flows can deliver cooler air masses. Current numerical guidance and agency outlooks for the first week of July 2026 converge on a high near or slightly above this normal, with several sources indicating 13 °C and at least one (BBC) showing 14 °C under a mix of sun and cloud with moderate northerly winds.
A developing polar airflow and the early stages of an El Niño signal are adding modest downside risk, keeping probabilities for 12 °C or lower non-negligible but secondary. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across much of the North Island, consistent with traders assigning the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 13–14 °C band. Because the market resolves on a single official maximum observation in two days, the tight clustering around the forecast consensus reflects both the reliability of short-range models at this lead time and the limited scope for rapid warming or cooling before the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$45,780วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's mid-winter climate and short-term forecast models are the main drivers positioning 13–14 °C as the clear market leaders for the July 4 daily maximum.** In July, Wellington's climatological daytime highs average 12–13 °C, with the 25th–75th percentile range typically spanning roughly 11–14 °C because the surrounding Tasman Sea moderates extremes while southerly or westerly flows can deliver cooler air masses. Current numerical guidance and agency outlooks for the first week of July 2026 converge on a high near or slightly above this normal, with several sources indicating 13 °C and at least one (BBC) showing 14 °C under a mix of sun and cloud with moderate northerly winds.
A developing polar airflow and the early stages of an El Niño signal are adding modest downside risk, keeping probabilities for 12 °C or lower non-negligible but secondary. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across much of the North Island, consistent with traders assigning the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 13–14 °C band. Because the market resolves on a single official maximum observation in two days, the tight clustering around the forecast consensus reflects both the reliability of short-range models at this lead time and the limited scope for rapid warming or cooling before the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$45,780วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Wellington's mid-winter climate and short-term forecast models are the main drivers positioning 13–14 °C as the clear market leaders for the July 4 daily maximum.** In July, Wellington's climatological daytime highs average 12–13 °C, with the 25th–75th percentile range typically spanning roughly 11–14 °C because the surrounding Tasman Sea moderates extremes while southerly or westerly flows can deliver cooler air masses. Current numerical guidance and agency outlooks for the first week of July 2026 converge on a high near or slightly above this normal, with several sources indicating 13 °C and at least one (BBC) showing 14 °C under a mix of sun and cloud with moderate northerly winds. A developing polar airflow and the early stages of an El Niño signal are adding modest downside risk, keeping probabilities for 12 °C or lower non-negligible but secondary. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across much of the North Island, consistent with traders assigning the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 13–14 °C band. Because the market resolves on a single official maximum observation in two days, the tight clustering around the forecast consensus reflects both the reliability of short-range models at this lead time and the limited scope for rapid warming or cooling before the date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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