**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on July 5?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 5?
14°C 62%
15°C 28%
13°C 11.3%
16°C 1.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 5, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
11%
14°C
62%
15°C
28%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 62%
15°C 28%
13°C 11.3%
16°C 1.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 5, 2026
9°C or below
$288 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$357 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$390 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$463 ปริมาณ
1%
13°C
$950 ปริมาณ
11%
14°C
$1,229 ปริมาณ
62%
15°C
$1,218 ปริมาณ
28%
16°C
$454 ปริมาณ
1%
17°C
$439 ปริมาณ
1%
18°C
$355 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C or higher
$638 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,781วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,781วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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