**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.** Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C. This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Shanghai on July 2?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 2?
22°C 41%
27°C or higher 29%
23°C 21%
24°C 21%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 2, 2026
17°C or below
4%
18°C
5%
19°C
10%
20°C
15%
21°C
17%
22°C
50%
23°C
21%
24°C
21%
25°C
2%
26°C
12%
27°C or higher
29%
22°C 41%
27°C or higher 29%
23°C 21%
24°C 21%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 2, 2026
17°C or below
$22 ปริมาณ
4%
18°C
$117 ปริมาณ
5%
19°C
$93 ปริมาณ
10%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
15%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
17%
22°C
$47 ปริมาณ
50%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
21%
24°C
$0 ปริมาณ
21%
25°C
$13 ปริมาณ
2%
26°C
$75 ปริมาณ
12%
27°C or higher
$66 ปริมาณ
29%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.**
Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C.
This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$421วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.**
Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C.
This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$421วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.** Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C. This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย