Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee at 94.5% implied probability for the 2026 Massachusetts U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-blue partisan lean where no Republican has secured a full Senate term since 1972. Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leads Rep. Seth Moulton narrowly in the latest Emerson College polling from early May 2026 amid a tightening Democratic primary set for September 1, but both Democrats dominate hypothetical general election matchups against likely GOP nominee John Deaton by 25-30 points per April UNH surveys. This commanding position stems from consistent polling trends, incumbency advantages, and historical base rates in a state with lopsided Democratic turnout. Scenarios to challenge include a primary winner's major scandal, Markey's health issues at age 80, or an elite GOP recruit like former Gov. Charlie Baker entering late, though none appear imminent ahead of November balloting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMassachusetts Senate Election Winner
Massachusetts Senate Election Winner
$12,986 ปริมาณ
$12,986 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
4%
$12,986 ปริมาณ
$12,986 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$8,382 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican
$4,603 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee at 94.5% implied probability for the 2026 Massachusetts U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-blue partisan lean where no Republican has secured a full Senate term since 1972. Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leads Rep. Seth Moulton narrowly in the latest Emerson College polling from early May 2026 amid a tightening Democratic primary set for September 1, but both Democrats dominate hypothetical general election matchups against likely GOP nominee John Deaton by 25-30 points per April UNH surveys. This commanding position stems from consistent polling trends, incumbency advantages, and historical base rates in a state with lopsided Democratic turnout. Scenarios to challenge include a primary winner's major scandal, Markey's health issues at age 80, or an elite GOP recruit like former Gov. Charlie Baker entering late, though none appear imminent ahead of November balloting.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,986วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee at 94.5% implied probability for the 2026 Massachusetts U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-blue partisan lean where no Republican has secured a full Senate term since 1972. Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leads Rep. Seth Moulton narrowly in the latest Emerson College polling from early May 2026 amid a tightening Democratic primary set for September 1, but both Democrats dominate hypothetical general election matchups against likely GOP nominee John Deaton by 25-30 points per April UNH surveys. This commanding position stems from consistent polling trends, incumbency advantages, and historical base rates in a state with lopsided Democratic turnout. Scenarios to challenge include a primary winner's major scandal, Markey's health issues at age 80, or an elite GOP recruit like former Gov. Charlie Baker entering late, though none appear imminent ahead of November balloting.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,986วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee at 94.5% implied probability for the 2026 Massachusetts U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-blue partisan lean where no Republican has secured a full Senate term since 1972. Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leads Rep. Seth Moulton narrowly in the latest Emerson College polling from early May 2026 amid a tightening Democratic primary set for September 1, but both Democrats dominate hypothetical general election matchups against likely GOP nominee John Deaton by 25-30 points per April UNH surveys. This commanding position stems from consistent polling trends, incumbency advantages, and historical base rates in a state with lopsided Democratic turnout. Scenarios to challenge include a primary winner's major scandal, Markey's health issues at age 80, or an elite GOP recruit like former Gov. Charlie Baker entering late, though none appear imminent ahead of November balloting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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