Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS data logging just one M8+ annually on average globally and none in 2026 year-to-date. The largest recent event, a M7.4 off Miyako, Japan on April 20, triggered tsunami alerts but produced no escalation toward megathrust rupture along the Nankai Trough, where long-term risks remain elevated yet short-term probabilities low per official assessments. Current seismic monitoring shows moderate global activity, with no anomalous foreshock sequences on high-hazard subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra. USGS real-time data updates could shift sentiment if unusual strain builds rapidly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$66,081 ปริมาณ
$66,081 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
$66,081 ปริมาณ
$66,081 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS data logging just one M8+ annually on average globally and none in 2026 year-to-date. The largest recent event, a M7.4 off Miyako, Japan on April 20, triggered tsunami alerts but produced no escalation toward megathrust rupture along the Nankai Trough, where long-term risks remain elevated yet short-term probabilities low per official assessments. Current seismic monitoring shows moderate global activity, with no anomalous foreshock sequences on high-hazard subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra. USGS real-time data updates could shift sentiment if unusual strain builds rapidly.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$66,081วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS data logging just one M8+ annually on average globally and none in 2026 year-to-date. The largest recent event, a M7.4 off Miyako, Japan on April 20, triggered tsunami alerts but produced no escalation toward megathrust rupture along the Nankai Trough, where long-term risks remain elevated yet short-term probabilities low per official assessments. Current seismic monitoring shows moderate global activity, with no anomalous foreshock sequences on high-hazard subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra. USGS real-time data updates could shift sentiment if unusual strain builds rapidly.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$66,081วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS data logging just one M8+ annually on average globally and none in 2026 year-to-date. The largest recent event, a M7.4 off Miyako, Japan on April 20, triggered tsunami alerts but produced no escalation toward megathrust rupture along the Nankai Trough, where long-term risks remain elevated yet short-term probabilities low per official assessments. Current seismic monitoring shows moderate global activity, with no anomalous foreshock sequences on high-hazard subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra. USGS real-time data updates could shift sentiment if unusual strain builds rapidly.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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