Bruno Retailleau holds grand meeting in Paris as presidential candidate

Bruno Retailleau held a major campaign event in Paris, signaling his active campaign for the 2027 presidential election and attempting to boost his visibility and support.

Gabriel Attal officially enters 2027 French presidential race

Gabriel Attal drops to 3%13%

Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy on May 22, 2026, aiming to represent the centrist Renaissance party and distinguish himself from Macron's legacy, which led to a decline in his market price.

Gabriel Attal officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy

Gabriel Attal drops to 6%10%

Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and Secretary General of Renaissance, officially declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and impacting market probabilities for himself and rivals.

Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption

Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%

A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential run for 2027

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%2%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon confirmed his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to capitalize on his left-wing base despite a fragmented left, affecting his market probability.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election

Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 12%6%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared his candidacy on May 3, 2026, positioning himself as the main left-wing contender and influencing his market price downward due to competition and polarization.

Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%

The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.

Bruno Retailleau nominated as The Republicans candidate for 2027 election

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%

Bruno Retailleau was nominated by The Republicans party as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position and influencing market prices.

Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid

Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%

Édouard Philippe's re-election as mayor of Le Havre bolstered his position as a credible centrist candidate for the 2027 presidential election, reflected in stable market probabilities.

Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing

Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5%

Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles.

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, presidential bid at risk

Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026 to contest her conviction and ban from running in 2027. The trial's outcome is critical for her candidacy and the far-right's electoral prospects.

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opens, ruling expected by July 2026

Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%

The appeal trial for Marine Le Pen's conviction began, with a ruling expected in July 2026. The outcome would determine whether she can run in the 2027 election, creating uncertainty and affecting market prices for her and Jordan Bardella.

Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid

Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%

Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor.

Édouard Philippe positions himself as natural successor to Macron

Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and leader in Macron's party Renaissance, worked to establish himself as the natural choice successor to Emmanuel Macron, influencing his market standing.

Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute

Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5%

Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations.

No clear dominant candidate emerges in fractured former majority coalition

A report highlighted the lack of a 'natural' candidate dominating the fractured former majority coalition ahead of the 2027 election, reflecting political uncertainty and contributing to market volatility among candidates like Édouard Philippe and others.

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse

Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%

Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices.

Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from 2027 presidential run

Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%

Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and banned from holding public office for five years, effectively barring her from the 2027 presidential election. This legal setback shifted far-right support towards Jordan Bardella, impacting their market probabilities.