Recent local election losses for Labour and mounting internal party pressure have elevated the odds that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer could depart office through a leadership contest or early general election well before the 2029 deadline. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro faces a firm constitutional term limit ahead of the May 31 presidential vote and June runoff, positioning him as a strong candidate for exit by mid-2026 despite rebounding approval ratings. Lower probabilities for figures such as Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel reflect slower-moving institutional or succession dynamics, while most other listed leaders show limited near-term risk from polls, legislative calendars, or diplomatic timelines through 2027. Trader consensus incorporates these election cycles, approval trends, and procedural barriers as the primary drivers of current positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Starmer - UK PM 44%
Petro - Colombia President 32%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.7%
Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%
$358,179 ปริมาณ
$358,179 ปริมาณ
Starmer - UK PM
44%
Petro - Colombia President
32%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
10%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
None before 2027
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Starmer - UK PM 44%
Petro - Colombia President 32%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.7%
Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%
$358,179 ปริมาณ
$358,179 ปริมาณ
Starmer - UK PM
44%
Petro - Colombia President
32%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
10%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
None before 2027
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent local election losses for Labour and mounting internal party pressure have elevated the odds that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer could depart office through a leadership contest or early general election well before the 2029 deadline. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro faces a firm constitutional term limit ahead of the May 31 presidential vote and June runoff, positioning him as a strong candidate for exit by mid-2026 despite rebounding approval ratings. Lower probabilities for figures such as Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel reflect slower-moving institutional or succession dynamics, while most other listed leaders show limited near-term risk from polls, legislative calendars, or diplomatic timelines through 2027. Trader consensus incorporates these election cycles, approval trends, and procedural barriers as the primary drivers of current positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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