Ongoing large federal deficits, projected by the Congressional Budget Office near $1.9–2.1 trillion for fiscal year 2026, continue driving total public debt higher amid mandatory spending growth, interest costs exceeding $1 trillion annually, and net additions from the 2025 reconciliation legislation. CBO baselines show debt held by the public rising as a share of GDP from roughly 101 percent in 2026 onward, with no enacted measures sufficient to produce a near-term primary surplus or outright decline. The debt ceiling increase enacted in mid-2025 is expected to last into 2027, removing near-term borrowing constraints, while scheduled appropriations, tariff revenue effects, and economic growth assumptions have not altered the upward trajectory. Traders therefore price a low probability of the debt peaking before 2027 absent major, unanticipated fiscal restraint.