The entrenched U.S.-Iran naval standoff and persistent dual blockades continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels, with daily commercial crossings in the single digits against a normal average of 60-plus, underpinning the 57.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by July 31. Recent naval skirmishes, including U.S. strikes on Iranian-flagged vessels and continued IRGC enforcement, have sustained elevated war-risk insurance premiums and kept more than 1,500 ships and 20,000 mariners idled in the Persian Gulf. Trader consensus reflects the absence of verifiable de-escalation agreements or escorted convoy expansions, though any diplomatic breakthrough ahead of key FOMC or energy-release catalysts could shift oil-market volatility and shipping-rate expectations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
$233,909 ปริมาณ
$233,909 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
$233,909 ปริมาณ
$233,909 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The entrenched U.S.-Iran naval standoff and persistent dual blockades continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels, with daily commercial crossings in the single digits against a normal average of 60-plus, underpinning the 57.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by July 31. Recent naval skirmishes, including U.S. strikes on Iranian-flagged vessels and continued IRGC enforcement, have sustained elevated war-risk insurance premiums and kept more than 1,500 ships and 20,000 mariners idled in the Persian Gulf. Trader consensus reflects the absence of verifiable de-escalation agreements or escorted convoy expansions, though any diplomatic breakthrough ahead of key FOMC or energy-release catalysts could shift oil-market volatility and shipping-rate expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$233,909วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The entrenched U.S.-Iran naval standoff and persistent dual blockades continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels, with daily commercial crossings in the single digits against a normal average of 60-plus, underpinning the 57.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by July 31. Recent naval skirmishes, including U.S. strikes on Iranian-flagged vessels and continued IRGC enforcement, have sustained elevated war-risk insurance premiums and kept more than 1,500 ships and 20,000 mariners idled in the Persian Gulf. Trader consensus reflects the absence of verifiable de-escalation agreements or escorted convoy expansions, though any diplomatic breakthrough ahead of key FOMC or energy-release catalysts could shift oil-market volatility and shipping-rate expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$233,909วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The entrenched U.S.-Iran naval standoff and persistent dual blockades continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 5-10 percent of pre-crisis levels, with daily commercial crossings in the single digits against a normal average of 60-plus, underpinning the 57.5 percent market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by July 31. Recent naval skirmishes, including U.S. strikes on Iranian-flagged vessels and continued IRGC enforcement, have sustained elevated war-risk insurance premiums and kept more than 1,500 ships and 20,000 mariners idled in the Persian Gulf. Trader consensus reflects the absence of verifiable de-escalation agreements or escorted convoy expansions, though any diplomatic breakthrough ahead of key FOMC or energy-release catalysts could shift oil-market volatility and shipping-rate expectations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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