Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes, with over 1,450 positive pools detected since mid-June—nearly double the prior year's pace across all boroughs—has shaped trader consensus around 20–34 neuroinvasive cases for 2026. Official NYC Health Department data show only three neuroinvasive cases and two milder infections reported so far, consistent with the typical late-August to early-September peak for human disease. Recent years have averaged 16–36 neuroinvasive cases annually (2022–2025 mean near 31), with transmission driven by Culex mosquitoes and influenced by temperature, rainfall, and vector control. Intensified larviciding and surveillance since early detections, plus the virus's low neuroinvasive rate (roughly 1 in 150 infections), support the market's concentration in the 20–34 bin while keeping higher totals below 25% implied probability. Updated surveillance reports through September will refine these odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
20 to 34 48%
Fewer than 20 35%
35 to 49 21%
50 or more 1.5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
35%
20 to 34
48%
35 to 49
21%
50 or more
2%
20 to 34 48%
Fewer than 20 35%
35 to 49 21%
50 or more 1.5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$1,788 ปริมาณ
35%
20 to 34
$2,828 ปริมาณ
48%
35 to 49
$1,590 ปริมาณ
21%
50 or more
$500 ปริมาณ
2%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes, with over 1,450 positive pools detected since mid-June—nearly double the prior year's pace across all boroughs—has shaped trader consensus around 20–34 neuroinvasive cases for 2026. Official NYC Health Department data show only three neuroinvasive cases and two milder infections reported so far, consistent with the typical late-August to early-September peak for human disease. Recent years have averaged 16–36 neuroinvasive cases annually (2022–2025 mean near 31), with transmission driven by Culex mosquitoes and influenced by temperature, rainfall, and vector control. Intensified larviciding and surveillance since early detections, plus the virus's low neuroinvasive rate (roughly 1 in 150 infections), support the market's concentration in the 20–34 bin while keeping higher totals below 25% implied probability. Updated surveillance reports through September will refine these odds.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,706วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes, with over 1,450 positive pools detected since mid-June—nearly double the prior year's pace across all boroughs—has shaped trader consensus around 20–34 neuroinvasive cases for 2026. Official NYC Health Department data show only three neuroinvasive cases and two milder infections reported so far, consistent with the typical late-August to early-September peak for human disease. Recent years have averaged 16–36 neuroinvasive cases annually (2022–2025 mean near 31), with transmission driven by Culex mosquitoes and influenced by temperature, rainfall, and vector control. Intensified larviciding and surveillance since early detections, plus the virus's low neuroinvasive rate (roughly 1 in 150 infections), support the market's concentration in the 20–34 bin while keeping higher totals below 25% implied probability. Updated surveillance reports through September will refine these odds.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,706วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes, with over 1,450 positive pools detected since mid-June—nearly double the prior year's pace across all boroughs—has shaped trader consensus around 20–34 neuroinvasive cases for 2026. Official NYC Health Department data show only three neuroinvasive cases and two milder infections reported so far, consistent with the typical late-August to early-September peak for human disease. Recent years have averaged 16–36 neuroinvasive cases annually (2022–2025 mean near 31), with transmission driven by Culex mosquitoes and influenced by temperature, rainfall, and vector control. Intensified larviciding and surveillance since early detections, plus the virus's low neuroinvasive rate (roughly 1 in 150 infections), support the market's concentration in the 20–34 bin while keeping higher totals below 25% implied probability. Updated surveillance reports through September will refine these odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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