The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election features a fragmented field where the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Kai Wegner faces pressure from polls showing support split among the CDU, SPD, Greens, Die Linke, and AfD. Recent state-level results elsewhere and national economic concerns have weighed on the governing parties, while Berlin-specific issues such as infrastructure disruptions have added scrutiny. With five parties projected to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus and no single bloc holding a clear majority, coalition negotiations will likely determine inclusion of the Greens or Left alongside the CDU or SPD. Traders weigh the established firewall against AfD participation, historical patterns of grand or three-party arrangements in the capital, and the short timeline to election day as key variables shaping implied probabilities for each party's government role.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
Grüne
88%
SPD
85%
CDU
61%
Linke
57%
AfD
6%
FDP
5%
FW
4%
BSW
4%
$2,677 ปริมาณ
Grüne
$83 ปริมาณ
88%
SPD
$104 ปริมาณ
85%
CDU
$159 ปริมาณ
61%
Linke
$234 ปริมาณ
57%
AfD
$1,098 ปริมาณ
6%
FDP
$146 ปริมาณ
5%
FW
$573 ปริมาณ
4%
BSW
$280 ปริมาณ
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election features a fragmented field where the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Kai Wegner faces pressure from polls showing support split among the CDU, SPD, Greens, Die Linke, and AfD. Recent state-level results elsewhere and national economic concerns have weighed on the governing parties, while Berlin-specific issues such as infrastructure disruptions have added scrutiny. With five parties projected to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus and no single bloc holding a clear majority, coalition negotiations will likely determine inclusion of the Greens or Left alongside the CDU or SPD. Traders weigh the established firewall against AfD participation, historical patterns of grand or three-party arrangements in the capital, and the short timeline to election day as key variables shaping implied probabilities for each party's government role.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,677วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election features a fragmented field where the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Kai Wegner faces pressure from polls showing support split among the CDU, SPD, Greens, Die Linke, and AfD. Recent state-level results elsewhere and national economic concerns have weighed on the governing parties, while Berlin-specific issues such as infrastructure disruptions have added scrutiny. With five parties projected to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus and no single bloc holding a clear majority, coalition negotiations will likely determine inclusion of the Greens or Left alongside the CDU or SPD. Traders weigh the established firewall against AfD participation, historical patterns of grand or three-party arrangements in the capital, and the short timeline to election day as key variables shaping implied probabilities for each party's government role.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,677วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election features a fragmented field where the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Kai Wegner faces pressure from polls showing support split among the CDU, SPD, Greens, Die Linke, and AfD. Recent state-level results elsewhere and national economic concerns have weighed on the governing parties, while Berlin-specific issues such as infrastructure disruptions have added scrutiny. With five parties projected to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus and no single bloc holding a clear majority, coalition negotiations will likely determine inclusion of the Greens or Left alongside the CDU or SPD. Traders weigh the established firewall against AfD participation, historical patterns of grand or three-party arrangements in the capital, and the short timeline to election day as key variables shaping implied probabilities for each party's government role.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย