Friedrich Merz’s black-red coalition has sustained its parliamentary majority and advanced concrete legislative priorities, including 2027 budget fundamentals and a health-system reform package projected to deliver €15 billion in savings. These developments, combined with the absence of any scheduled confidence vote or constitutional trigger before late 2026, underpin the 84.5 percent trader probability that he remains chancellor through 2026. Although recent polls show government satisfaction near historic lows and the AfD leading nationally, mainstream parties continue to enforce the firewall against early elections, limiting realistic pathways for Merz’s departure before the next federal vote in 2029.