Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, anchored by a fragile ceasefire following US strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory actions in the Strait of Hormuz as recently as early May. Stalled 2025–2026 negotiations under President Trump, marked by missed deadlines and no nuclear agreement, have deepened distrust since the embassy's closure after the 1979 hostage crisis. State Department warnings urged Americans to leave Iran in late April amid partial airspace reopening, while other nations like Switzerland tentatively resumed operations—highlighting the US's unique barriers from sanctions, proxy conflicts, and failed JCPOA revival efforts. A major diplomatic breakthrough remains unlikely absent de-escalation signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
$78,109 ปริมาณ
$78,109 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$78,109 ปริมาณ
$78,109 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, anchored by a fragile ceasefire following US strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory actions in the Strait of Hormuz as recently as early May. Stalled 2025–2026 negotiations under President Trump, marked by missed deadlines and no nuclear agreement, have deepened distrust since the embassy's closure after the 1979 hostage crisis. State Department warnings urged Americans to leave Iran in late April amid partial airspace reopening, while other nations like Switzerland tentatively resumed operations—highlighting the US's unique barriers from sanctions, proxy conflicts, and failed JCPOA revival efforts. A major diplomatic breakthrough remains unlikely absent de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
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$78,109วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, anchored by a fragile ceasefire following US strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory actions in the Strait of Hormuz as recently as early May. Stalled 2025–2026 negotiations under President Trump, marked by missed deadlines and no nuclear agreement, have deepened distrust since the embassy's closure after the 1979 hostage crisis. State Department warnings urged Americans to leave Iran in late April amid partial airspace reopening, while other nations like Switzerland tentatively resumed operations—highlighting the US's unique barriers from sanctions, proxy conflicts, and failed JCPOA revival efforts. A major diplomatic breakthrough remains unlikely absent de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$78,109วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, anchored by a fragile ceasefire following US strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory actions in the Strait of Hormuz as recently as early May. Stalled 2025–2026 negotiations under President Trump, marked by missed deadlines and no nuclear agreement, have deepened distrust since the embassy's closure after the 1979 hostage crisis. State Department warnings urged Americans to leave Iran in late April amid partial airspace reopening, while other nations like Switzerland tentatively resumed operations—highlighting the US's unique barriers from sanctions, proxy conflicts, and failed JCPOA revival efforts. A major diplomatic breakthrough remains unlikely absent de-escalation signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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