Persistent near-term inflation pressures, with New Zealand’s March-quarter CPI holding at 3.1 percent above the Reserve Bank’s 1–3 percent target and projections pointing to a temporary peak near 4.2 percent amid elevated oil and fuel prices linked to Middle East developments, have positioned a July Official Cash Rate hike as the leading outcome with 64.0 percent market-implied probability. Traders view the current 2.25 percent OCR as stimulatory relative to the estimated neutral level around 3 percent, prompting expectations of normalization as two-year inflation expectations rise to 2.53 percent. Weak domestic demand and labor-market slack sustain the 29.5 percent probability of no change at the July 8 review, while the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement serves as the immediate catalyst that could refine the path for subsequent policy adjustments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วReserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Increase 64%
No Change 30%
Decrease 1.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 7, 2026
Increase
64%
No Change
30%
Decrease
2%
Increase 64%
No Change 30%
Decrease 1.9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 7, 2026
Increase
$2,367 ปริมาณ
64%
No Change
$381 ปริมาณ
30%
Decrease
$501 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent near-term inflation pressures, with New Zealand’s March-quarter CPI holding at 3.1 percent above the Reserve Bank’s 1–3 percent target and projections pointing to a temporary peak near 4.2 percent amid elevated oil and fuel prices linked to Middle East developments, have positioned a July Official Cash Rate hike as the leading outcome with 64.0 percent market-implied probability. Traders view the current 2.25 percent OCR as stimulatory relative to the estimated neutral level around 3 percent, prompting expectations of normalization as two-year inflation expectations rise to 2.53 percent. Weak domestic demand and labor-market slack sustain the 29.5 percent probability of no change at the July 8 review, while the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement serves as the immediate catalyst that could refine the path for subsequent policy adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 8, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,249วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 8, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent near-term inflation pressures, with New Zealand’s March-quarter CPI holding at 3.1 percent above the Reserve Bank’s 1–3 percent target and projections pointing to a temporary peak near 4.2 percent amid elevated oil and fuel prices linked to Middle East developments, have positioned a July Official Cash Rate hike as the leading outcome with 64.0 percent market-implied probability. Traders view the current 2.25 percent OCR as stimulatory relative to the estimated neutral level around 3 percent, prompting expectations of normalization as two-year inflation expectations rise to 2.53 percent. Weak domestic demand and labor-market slack sustain the 29.5 percent probability of no change at the July 8 review, while the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement serves as the immediate catalyst that could refine the path for subsequent policy adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,249วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 8, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent near-term inflation pressures, with New Zealand’s March-quarter CPI holding at 3.1 percent above the Reserve Bank’s 1–3 percent target and projections pointing to a temporary peak near 4.2 percent amid elevated oil and fuel prices linked to Middle East developments, have positioned a July Official Cash Rate hike as the leading outcome with 64.0 percent market-implied probability. Traders view the current 2.25 percent OCR as stimulatory relative to the estimated neutral level around 3 percent, prompting expectations of normalization as two-year inflation expectations rise to 2.53 percent. Weak domestic demand and labor-market slack sustain the 29.5 percent probability of no change at the July 8 review, while the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement serves as the immediate catalyst that could refine the path for subsequent policy adjustments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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