Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth—>2.5% at 31.5% versus <0.5% at 25%—reflect heightened uncertainty following April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, amid rising energy costs from geopolitical tensions. This tempers optimism from Q1's 2.0% annualized GDP rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% slump and April's 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Consensus forecasts hover at 2.0–2.5%, but the bimodal pricing highlights swing factors: persistent labor resilience supporting growth bets versus Fed policy tightening risking contraction. Key catalysts include May nonfarm payrolls and the June FOMC meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 42%
<0.5% 21.7%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
2.0–2.5% 13%
$28,008 ปริมาณ
$28,008 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
22%
0.5–1.0%
13%
1.0–1.5%
13%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
13%
>2.5%
42%
>2.5% 42%
<0.5% 21.7%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
2.0–2.5% 13%
$28,008 ปริมาณ
$28,008 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,879 ปริมาณ
22%
0.5–1.0%
$15,278 ปริมาณ
13%
1.0–1.5%
$1,535 ปริมาณ
13%
1.5–2.0%
$1,499 ปริมาณ
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,757 ปริมาณ
13%
>2.5%
$4,061 ปริมาณ
42%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth—>2.5% at 31.5% versus <0.5% at 25%—reflect heightened uncertainty following April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, amid rising energy costs from geopolitical tensions. This tempers optimism from Q1's 2.0% annualized GDP rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% slump and April's 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Consensus forecasts hover at 2.0–2.5%, but the bimodal pricing highlights swing factors: persistent labor resilience supporting growth bets versus Fed policy tightening risking contraction. Key catalysts include May nonfarm payrolls and the June FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,008วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth—>2.5% at 31.5% versus <0.5% at 25%—reflect heightened uncertainty following April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, amid rising energy costs from geopolitical tensions. This tempers optimism from Q1's 2.0% annualized GDP rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% slump and April's 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Consensus forecasts hover at 2.0–2.5%, but the bimodal pricing highlights swing factors: persistent labor resilience supporting growth bets versus Fed policy tightening risking contraction. Key catalysts include May nonfarm payrolls and the June FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,008วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth—>2.5% at 31.5% versus <0.5% at 25%—reflect heightened uncertainty following April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, amid rising energy costs from geopolitical tensions. This tempers optimism from Q1's 2.0% annualized GDP rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5% slump and April's 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Consensus forecasts hover at 2.0–2.5%, but the bimodal pricing highlights swing factors: persistent labor resilience supporting growth bets versus Fed policy tightening risking contraction. Key catalysts include May nonfarm payrolls and the June FOMC meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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