Trader sentiment for second-quarter U.S. GDP growth centers on the 2.0–2.5 percent annualized range holding a modest edge at 25.5 percent implied probability, reflecting closely matched outcomes across the 1.5–3.0 percent bands. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate showed 2.0 percent growth in Q1, supported by robust business investment in AI equipment yet offset by softer consumer outlays and elevated imports amid tariff-related front-loading. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast signals a potential 3.7 percent rebound, but April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year and subdued nonfarm payrolls underscore persistent inflation and labor-market cooling that constrain Federal Reserve easing. This balance leaves the adjacent 1.5–2.0 and 2.5–3.0 percent intervals competitive, with the May 28 second estimate and retail-sales data serving as near-term swing factors for market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 22%
1.5–2.0% 19%
3.0–3.5% 15%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
19%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
22%
3.0–3.5%
15%
≥3.5%
7%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 22%
1.5–2.0% 19%
3.0–3.5% 15%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
$593 ปริมาณ
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 ปริมาณ
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 ปริมาณ
19%
2.0–2.5%
$526 ปริมาณ
26%
2.5–3.0%
$410 ปริมาณ
22%
3.0–3.5%
$661 ปริมาณ
15%
≥3.5%
$509 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment for second-quarter U.S. GDP growth centers on the 2.0–2.5 percent annualized range holding a modest edge at 25.5 percent implied probability, reflecting closely matched outcomes across the 1.5–3.0 percent bands. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate showed 2.0 percent growth in Q1, supported by robust business investment in AI equipment yet offset by softer consumer outlays and elevated imports amid tariff-related front-loading. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast signals a potential 3.7 percent rebound, but April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year and subdued nonfarm payrolls underscore persistent inflation and labor-market cooling that constrain Federal Reserve easing. This balance leaves the adjacent 1.5–2.0 and 2.5–3.0 percent intervals competitive, with the May 28 second estimate and retail-sales data serving as near-term swing factors for market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,345วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment for second-quarter U.S. GDP growth centers on the 2.0–2.5 percent annualized range holding a modest edge at 25.5 percent implied probability, reflecting closely matched outcomes across the 1.5–3.0 percent bands. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate showed 2.0 percent growth in Q1, supported by robust business investment in AI equipment yet offset by softer consumer outlays and elevated imports amid tariff-related front-loading. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast signals a potential 3.7 percent rebound, but April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year and subdued nonfarm payrolls underscore persistent inflation and labor-market cooling that constrain Federal Reserve easing. This balance leaves the adjacent 1.5–2.0 and 2.5–3.0 percent intervals competitive, with the May 28 second estimate and retail-sales data serving as near-term swing factors for market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,345วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for second-quarter U.S. GDP growth centers on the 2.0–2.5 percent annualized range holding a modest edge at 25.5 percent implied probability, reflecting closely matched outcomes across the 1.5–3.0 percent bands. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate showed 2.0 percent growth in Q1, supported by robust business investment in AI equipment yet offset by softer consumer outlays and elevated imports amid tariff-related front-loading. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast signals a potential 3.7 percent rebound, but April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year and subdued nonfarm payrolls underscore persistent inflation and labor-market cooling that constrain Federal Reserve easing. This balance leaves the adjacent 1.5–2.0 and 2.5–3.0 percent intervals competitive, with the May 28 second estimate and retail-sales data serving as near-term swing factors for market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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