Elevated euro-area inflation projections averaging 3.0% for 2026, driven by Middle East-related energy price surges, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, July’s hold and subsequent communications stress a data-dependent approach to returning inflation to the 2% target, with core measures also revised higher. Trader consensus prices in steady or further restrictive policy through year-end amid labor market resilience and official guidance avoiding pre-commitment to easing. A sharp reversal in energy costs or material growth slowdown below the projected 0.8% could reopen cut discussions at later 2026 meetings, though futures reflect limited odds of such shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วECB rate cut in 2026?
ECB rate cut in 2026?
9% โอกาส
$31,480 ปริมาณ
$31,480 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
9% โอกาส
$31,480 ปริมาณ
$31,480 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections averaging 3.0% for 2026, driven by Middle East-related energy price surges, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, July’s hold and subsequent communications stress a data-dependent approach to returning inflation to the 2% target, with core measures also revised higher. Trader consensus prices in steady or further restrictive policy through year-end amid labor market resilience and official guidance avoiding pre-commitment to easing. A sharp reversal in energy costs or material growth slowdown below the projected 0.8% could reopen cut discussions at later 2026 meetings, though futures reflect limited odds of such shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,480วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections averaging 3.0% for 2026, driven by Middle East-related energy price surges, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, July’s hold and subsequent communications stress a data-dependent approach to returning inflation to the 2% target, with core measures also revised higher. Trader consensus prices in steady or further restrictive policy through year-end amid labor market resilience and official guidance avoiding pre-commitment to easing. A sharp reversal in energy costs or material growth slowdown below the projected 0.8% could reopen cut discussions at later 2026 meetings, though futures reflect limited odds of such shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,480วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation projections averaging 3.0% for 2026, driven by Middle East-related energy price surges, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, July’s hold and subsequent communications stress a data-dependent approach to returning inflation to the 2% target, with core measures also revised higher. Trader consensus prices in steady or further restrictive policy through year-end amid labor market resilience and official guidance avoiding pre-commitment to easing. A sharp reversal in energy costs or material growth slowdown below the projected 0.8% could reopen cut discussions at later 2026 meetings, though futures reflect limited odds of such shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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