Recent ECB policy actions and inflation data explain the 95.5% market-implied probability against a rate cut in 2026. The Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September amid energy-driven price pressures from Middle East developments, with September staff projections showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% for the year and core at 2.5%. Officials have signaled data-dependent decisions and left open the possibility of further tightening by year-end, consistent with above-target readings near 3.3% in August. Euro-area growth forecasts were revised higher to 0.9% for 2026, underscoring economic resilience. While a sharp disinflation or abrupt downturn could alter the path, current trajectories and communications support sustained restrictive policy through the remainder of the year.