**The 77.5% market-implied probability on “No” for a 2026 engagement reflects the couple’s documented on-again, off-again dynamic and absence of concrete forward momentum.** Cardi B and Stefon Diggs welcomed a son in November 2025, went public as a couple earlier that year, but reportedly split by February 2026 amid Instagram unfollows and Cardi’s onstage comments confirming they were no longer romantically involved. Reconciliation rumors resurfaced after PDA sightings at Diggs’s foundation Mother’s Day event in May and a cozy social media post, yet a viral May argument outside a Maryland coffee shop and Diggs’s June TMZ remarks—calling her “my child’s mother” and “great” while deferring confirmation of their status to her—underscore ongoing uncertainty. With roughly six months remaining in 2026, the lack of any verified proposal, ring reveal, or joint statements about marriage plans weighs heavily against a yes outcome. Historical patterns in high-profile celebrity relationships show engagements typically follow stable periods rather than periods marked by public spats and ambiguous co-parenting updates. Upcoming catalysts like Cardi’s touring schedule, Diggs’s NFL season, and any major public appearances could shift sentiment, but current verified developments point to continued volatility rather than imminent commitment. Traders appear to be pricing in the realistic barriers to a firm resolution by year-end.