Diplomatic norms and historical precedent strongly shape trader consensus on the "Will Trump and Xi kiss at APEC?" market, with "No" at 99.4%. Bilateral meetings between the U.S. president and Chinese leader at APEC summits follow standard protocols emphasizing handshakes, statements, and joint appearances rather than personal gestures. Recent U.S.-China interactions have centered on trade, technology, and security issues without signals of unusual rapport that might alter this pattern. The wisdom of crowds reflected in pricing accounts for these consistent institutional and relational factors. Late developments such as a sudden bilateral breakthrough, health-related accommodations, or an unforeseen summit incident remain theoretically possible but face substantial structural barriers within the resolution window.