The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe domestic and external pressures underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation spread across all provinces but were met with a large-scale security crackdown involving internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained unrest by mid-January 2026, with only sporadic smaller actions continuing. Security institutions stayed cohesive, showing no widespread defections. The February 2026 US-Israel military campaign, which included strikes decapitating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, triggered a transition to interim collective leadership under the constitution that maintained operational continuity. Iran responded with missile and drone retaliation, participated in an April ceasefire (later strained), and sustained core state functions through the summer despite renewed clashes and economic strain. Analysts note that repeated protest waves since 2019, combined with sanctions and regional setbacks, have not produced elite fractures or opposition unity sufficient for regime change, consistent with the Islamic Republic's historical pattern of adaptation under duress.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
7% โอกาส
$24,680,973 ปริมาณ
$24,680,973 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
7% โอกาส
$24,680,973 ปริมาณ
$24,680,973 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe domestic and external pressures underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation spread across all provinces but were met with a large-scale security crackdown involving internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained unrest by mid-January 2026, with only sporadic smaller actions continuing. Security institutions stayed cohesive, showing no widespread defections. The February 2026 US-Israel military campaign, which included strikes decapitating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, triggered a transition to interim collective leadership under the constitution that maintained operational continuity. Iran responded with missile and drone retaliation, participated in an April ceasefire (later strained), and sustained core state functions through the summer despite renewed clashes and economic strain. Analysts note that repeated protest waves since 2019, combined with sanctions and regional setbacks, have not produced elite fractures or opposition unity sufficient for regime change, consistent with the Islamic Republic's historical pattern of adaptation under duress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,680,973วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe domestic and external pressures underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation spread across all provinces but were met with a large-scale security crackdown involving internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained unrest by mid-January 2026, with only sporadic smaller actions continuing. Security institutions stayed cohesive, showing no widespread defections. The February 2026 US-Israel military campaign, which included strikes decapitating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, triggered a transition to interim collective leadership under the constitution that maintained operational continuity. Iran responded with missile and drone retaliation, participated in an April ceasefire (later strained), and sustained core state functions through the summer despite renewed clashes and economic strain. Analysts note that repeated protest waves since 2019, combined with sanctions and regional setbacks, have not produced elite fractures or opposition unity sufficient for regime change, consistent with the Islamic Republic's historical pattern of adaptation under duress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,680,973วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe domestic and external pressures underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation spread across all provinces but were met with a large-scale security crackdown involving internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained unrest by mid-January 2026, with only sporadic smaller actions continuing. Security institutions stayed cohesive, showing no widespread defections. The February 2026 US-Israel military campaign, which included strikes decapitating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, triggered a transition to interim collective leadership under the constitution that maintained operational continuity. Iran responded with missile and drone retaliation, participated in an April ceasefire (later strained), and sustained core state functions through the summer despite renewed clashes and economic strain. Analysts note that repeated protest waves since 2019, combined with sanctions and regional setbacks, have not produced elite fractures or opposition unity sufficient for regime change, consistent with the Islamic Republic's historical pattern of adaptation under duress.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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