Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic channels, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent Oman-mediated talks on Strait of Hormuz access, have prioritized sanctions enforcement, port blockades, and negotiated limits on nuclear activities over ground operations. Following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes earlier in 2026 and an April ceasefire, the Trump administration has signaled continued economic pressure and intermediary messaging rather than territorial occupation, consistent with high logistical barriers and historical avoidance of large-scale invasions. As of mid-August 2026, renewed shipping incidents and Iranian assertions of control have prompted renewed U.S. naval measures but no escalation toward invasion. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no U.S. invasion before 2027 reflects these de-escalatory signals and the short remaining window through December 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วสหรัฐฯจะรุกรานอิหร่านก่อนปี 2027 หรือไม่?
สหรัฐฯจะรุกรานอิหร่านก่อนปี 2027 หรือไม่?
ใช่
17% โอกาส
$58,697,621 ปริมาณ
$58,697,621 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
17% โอกาส
$58,697,621 ปริมาณ
$58,697,621 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic channels, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent Oman-mediated talks on Strait of Hormuz access, have prioritized sanctions enforcement, port blockades, and negotiated limits on nuclear activities over ground operations. Following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes earlier in 2026 and an April ceasefire, the Trump administration has signaled continued economic pressure and intermediary messaging rather than territorial occupation, consistent with high logistical barriers and historical avoidance of large-scale invasions. As of mid-August 2026, renewed shipping incidents and Iranian assertions of control have prompted renewed U.S. naval measures but no escalation toward invasion. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no U.S. invasion before 2027 reflects these de-escalatory signals and the short remaining window through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,697,621วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic channels, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent Oman-mediated talks on Strait of Hormuz access, have prioritized sanctions enforcement, port blockades, and negotiated limits on nuclear activities over ground operations. Following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes earlier in 2026 and an April ceasefire, the Trump administration has signaled continued economic pressure and intermediary messaging rather than territorial occupation, consistent with high logistical barriers and historical avoidance of large-scale invasions. As of mid-August 2026, renewed shipping incidents and Iranian assertions of control have prompted renewed U.S. naval measures but no escalation toward invasion. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no U.S. invasion before 2027 reflects these de-escalatory signals and the short remaining window through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,697,621วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic channels, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent Oman-mediated talks on Strait of Hormuz access, have prioritized sanctions enforcement, port blockades, and negotiated limits on nuclear activities over ground operations. Following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes earlier in 2026 and an April ceasefire, the Trump administration has signaled continued economic pressure and intermediary messaging rather than territorial occupation, consistent with high logistical barriers and historical avoidance of large-scale invasions. As of mid-August 2026, renewed shipping incidents and Iranian assertions of control have prompted renewed U.S. naval measures but no escalation toward invasion. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no U.S. invasion before 2027 reflects these de-escalatory signals and the short remaining window through December 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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