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icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Jun 10

Jun 10

2nd hottest 56%

1st hottest 32%

3rd hottest 10.5%

4th or lower 3.3%

Polymarket

$92,678 Vol.

2nd hottest 56%

1st hottest 32%

3rd hottest 10.5%

4th or lower 3.3%

Polymarket

$92,678 Vol.

1st hottest

$8,817 Vol.

32%

2nd hottest

$1,610 Vol.

56%

3rd hottest

$38,159 Vol.

10%

4th or lower

$44,093 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus positions May 2026 as the second-hottest May on record (56% implied probability), reflecting exceptionally warm early-month global surface air temperatures amid NOAA's May 14 ENSO update forecasting an 82% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July, which typically amplifies heat. April 2026 ranked fourth-warmest at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, underscoring persistent anthropogenic warming trends despite prior neutral conditions, with recent years dominating rankings—2024 first, 2025 second, 2023 third. Preliminary observations indicate potential to surpass May 2023 but uncertainty lingers for the month's remainder, influenced by steering atmospheric patterns; NOAA's mid-June Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release will clarify resolution.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$92,678
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus positions May 2026 as the second-hottest May on record (56% implied probability), reflecting exceptionally warm early-month global surface air temperatures amid NOAA's May 14 ENSO update forecasting an 82% chance of El Niño emergence in May-July, which typically amplifies heat. April 2026 ranked fourth-warmest at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, underscoring persistent anthropogenic warming trends despite prior neutral conditions, with recent years dominating rankings—2024 first, 2025 second, 2023 third. Preliminary observations indicate potential to surpass May 2023 but uncertainty lingers for the month's remainder, influenced by steering atmospheric patterns; NOAA's mid-June Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release will clarify resolution.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$92,678
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "2nd hottest" sa 56%, sinusundan ng "1st hottest" sa 32%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 56¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 56% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" ay naka-generate ng $92.7K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 27, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" ay "2nd hottest" sa 56%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 56% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "1st hottest" sa 32%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.