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icon for May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

icon for May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Jun 10

Jun 10

1.15–1.19ºC 38%

1.10–1.14ºC 38%

<1.10ºC 11%

1.20–1.24ºC 11%

Polymarket

$22,165 Vol.

1.15–1.19ºC 38%

1.10–1.14ºC 38%

<1.10ºC 11%

1.20–1.24ºC 11%

Polymarket

$22,165 Vol.

<1.10ºC

$9,611 Vol.

11%

1.10–1.14ºC

$1,268 Vol.

38%

1.15–1.19ºC

$2,238 Vol.

38%

1.20–1.24ºC

$1,853 Vol.

11%

1.25–1.29ºC

$2,976 Vol.

6%

>1.29ºC

$5,255 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline at 40.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 1.10–1.14ºC at 33.0%, reflecting uncertainty in the emerging El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently raised El Niño odds to 61% for May–July 2026, up from neutral conditions through early 2026, potentially amplifying temperatures after April's 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest on Copernicus ERA5 records. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread on El Niño intensity, lingering La Niña effects from winter, and early May sea surface temperature observations. New Copernicus seasonal outlooks and the June climate bulletin will refine trader positioning amid inherent forecasting variability.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$22,165
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline at 40.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 1.10–1.14ºC at 33.0%, reflecting uncertainty in the emerging El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently raised El Niño odds to 61% for May–July 2026, up from neutral conditions through early 2026, potentially amplifying temperatures after April's 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest on Copernicus ERA5 records. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread on El Niño intensity, lingering La Niña effects from winter, and early May sea surface temperature observations. New Copernicus seasonal outlooks and the June climate bulletin will refine trader positioning amid inherent forecasting variability.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$22,165
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "1.10–1.14ºC" sa 38%, sinusundan ng "1.15–1.19ºC" sa 38%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 38¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 38% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" ay naka-generate ng $22.2K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 27, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" ay "1.10–1.14ºC" sa 38%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 38% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "1.15–1.19ºC" sa 38%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.