Latest numerical weather prediction models indicate a stable subtropical maritime airmass over Hong Kong through May 17, with light southerly flow and persistent cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 24 °C. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble forecasts show overnight lows clustering between 23 °C and 25 °C, consistent with climatological May averages of 23–25 °C and the absence of any approaching cold front or tropical disturbance. Model spread remains modest, producing the current market-implied probabilities that favor 24 °C as the modal outcome while assigning meaningful weight to the adjacent values. Updated model runs and observational data releases over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17?
24°C 38%
23°C 24%
26°C 21.0%
25°C 17%
BAGO
BAGO
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
6%
23°C
24%
24°C
38%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 38%
23°C 24%
26°C 21.0%
25°C 17%
BAGO
BAGO
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
$824 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$456 Vol.
1%
20°C
$65 Vol.
1%
21°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$12 Vol.
6%
23°C
$22 Vol.
24%
24°C
$42 Vol.
38%
25°C
$17 Vol.
17%
26°C
$88 Vol.
17%
27°C
$118 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$1,260 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models indicate a stable subtropical maritime airmass over Hong Kong through May 17, with light southerly flow and persistent cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 24 °C. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble forecasts show overnight lows clustering between 23 °C and 25 °C, consistent with climatological May averages of 23–25 °C and the absence of any approaching cold front or tropical disturbance. Model spread remains modest, producing the current market-implied probabilities that favor 24 °C as the modal outcome while assigning meaningful weight to the adjacent values. Updated model runs and observational data releases over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,120Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models indicate a stable subtropical maritime airmass over Hong Kong through May 17, with light southerly flow and persistent cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 24 °C. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble forecasts show overnight lows clustering between 23 °C and 25 °C, consistent with climatological May averages of 23–25 °C and the absence of any approaching cold front or tropical disturbance. Model spread remains modest, producing the current market-implied probabilities that favor 24 °C as the modal outcome while assigning meaningful weight to the adjacent values. Updated model runs and observational data releases over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,120Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETLatest numerical weather prediction models indicate a stable subtropical maritime airmass over Hong Kong through May 17, with light southerly flow and persistent cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 24 °C. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble forecasts show overnight lows clustering between 23 °C and 25 °C, consistent with climatological May averages of 23–25 °C and the absence of any approaching cold front or tropical disturbance. Model spread remains modest, producing the current market-implied probabilities that favor 24 °C as the modal outcome while assigning meaningful weight to the adjacent values. Updated model runs and observational data releases over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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