Recent numerical weather model runs from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate that minimum temperatures on May 19 will likely settle in the 24–26 °C range, with the market’s slight edge to 25 °C reflecting expectations of moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate during the pre-monsoon transition, elevated humidity and sea-surface temperatures in the South China Sea typically limit overnight drops, while variable cloud cover and urban heat-island effects introduce the one-degree spread seen in current trader consensus. Any strengthening of the northeast monsoon or clearer skies could push readings toward 24 °C, whereas sustained moisture would favor 26 °C; the next updated forecast runs and local observations over the coming 48 hours will refine these probabilities.