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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 18

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 18

26°C 28%

24°C 22%

27°C 20%

25°C 16%

Polymarket
BAGO

26°C 28%

24°C 22%

27°C 20%

25°C 16%

Polymarket
BAGO

20°C or below

$356 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$527 Vol.

1%

22°C

$417 Vol.

1%

23°C

$8 Vol.

12%

24°C

$0 Vol.

22%

25°C

$18 Vol.

21%

26°C

$6 Vol.

23%

27°C

$0 Vol.

20%

28°C

$0 Vol.

8%

29°C

$834 Vol.

<1%

30°C or higher

$803 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current numerical weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show substantial uncertainty in the overnight minimum for Hong Kong on May 20, producing a tight clustering of outcomes around 24–27 °C that matches the market’s leading probabilities. This range sits squarely within the climatological average low of 24–25 °C for mid-May, shaped by the prevailing southwesterly monsoon flow, elevated humidity that moderates radiational cooling, and the seasonal position of the subtropical high. Minor shifts in cloud cover or wind speed over the next 72 hours could easily move the realized minimum across these thresholds, explaining why traders have not yet consolidated behind a single value ahead of the official Hong Kong Observatory reading.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,746
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 20, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current numerical weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show substantial uncertainty in the overnight minimum for Hong Kong on May 20, producing a tight clustering of outcomes around 24–27 °C that matches the market’s leading probabilities. This range sits squarely within the climatological average low of 24–25 °C for mid-May, shaped by the prevailing southwesterly monsoon flow, elevated humidity that moderates radiational cooling, and the seasonal position of the subtropical high. Minor shifts in cloud cover or wind speed over the next 72 hours could easily move the realized minimum across these thresholds, explaining why traders have not yet consolidated behind a single value ahead of the official Hong Kong Observatory reading.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,746
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 20, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 11 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "26°C" sa 23%, sinusundan ng "24°C" sa 22%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 23¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 23% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong May 16, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?," i-browse ang 11 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?" ay "26°C" sa 23%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 23% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "24°C" sa 22%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 20?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.