The market for Buenos Aires’ highest temperature today shows a tight contest among 14°C, 15°C, and 16°C because the latest runs from regional numerical weather prediction models place the afternoon maximum squarely in that narrow band. A southerly flow of cooler maritime air has suppressed daytime warming, keeping forecast highs 2–4 °C below the long-term mid-May climatological average of roughly 18 °C. Key variables that will decide the exact outcome include the precise timing of any cloud cover over the city and the strength of the afternoon sea breeze measured at the official Observatorio Central station. Traders are monitoring the next model update cycle and the first real-time observations after 14:00 local time, when the difference between a 14 °C and 16 °C resolution could swing sharply on small changes in boundary-layer mixing.