Current ensemble forecasts for Jeddah show tight clustering around 44–48°C for the May 18 maximum, with trader consensus favoring 46°C as the most likely peak because of strong daytime heating under mostly clear skies and hot, dry air advection from the Saudi interior. Model spread arises from uncertainty in the timing and strength of the Red Sea sea breeze, which can cap coastal temperatures if it strengthens midday, versus sustained southerly flow that would allow greater insolation and surface warming. Historical May climatology in the region places typical maxima near 40°C, so any shift in upper-level subsidence or aerosol loading could push readings higher. Fresh runs from regional meteorological centers expected within 48 hours will clarify the most probable threshold.