Latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate Chengdu's May 16 high temperature clustering around 28–30°C, driving trader consensus with 29°C at 24.5% implied probability amid slight ensemble spread. Recent overcast skies capping prior days' highs near 25°C have given way to a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and increased solar insolation, as noted in China Meteorological Administration updates and warming regional trends toward early summer heat. Differentiating factors include model divergence on afternoon cloud development in the Sichuan Basin—potentially limiting peaks to 28°C or allowing 30–31°C under clearer skies—and urban heat effects. New 12z model outputs expected midday could refine probabilities before evening observations resolve the market.