Strong surveillance by the CDC and WHO, combined with the remote location of the newly confirmed Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ituri Province, underpins the 89% market-implied probability of no U.S. case by June 30. The Bundibugyo strain has produced 246 suspected cases and roughly 80 deaths since mid-May, centered far from major travel hubs and near the Ugandan border, with rapid contact tracing limiting further spread. Historical patterns show Ebola exportations to the U.S. remain exceedingly rare, occurring only during the 2014 West African epidemic despite multiple subsequent African outbreaks. U.S. entry screening and laboratory capacity further reduce transmission risk, though model projections note that any undetected export before intensified monitoring could shift odds.