Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and light southerly flow across the Northeast, which will limit radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies overnight into May 19. This setup produces a tight ensemble spread centered on 66–69 °F at the LaGuardia station, explaining why those bands command the highest implied probabilities. Springtime boundary-layer moisture and variable low-level winds create the main uncertainty that keeps adjacent ranges competitive, while climatological baselines for mid-May show such moderate lows occur frequently under similar synoptic patterns. Refined guidance expected from the next model cycles will likely narrow the distribution further ahead of the resolution window.