Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a mild overnight pattern across the Northeast, with southerly flow and limited radiative cooling expected to keep New York City’s minimum temperature in the mid-60s Fahrenheit on May 18. This setup favors the 64–65°F and 66–67°F bins that together hold nearly half the market probability. Differentiating these narrow ranges depends on variables such as cloud-cover duration, boundary-layer mixing, and exact dew-point values, which can shift the low by a degree or two between successive model runs. Historical mid-May climatology centers closer to 53–55°F, so the current warm anomaly reflects a transient ridge that could weaken if a frontal passage arrives earlier than projected. Updated high-resolution forecasts and the next NWS morning briefing remain the key catalysts likely to reprice the tightly clustered outcomes.