Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service indicates a stable warm-air mass over South Florida through mid-May, with prevailing southerly flow off the Atlantic maintaining overnight lows several degrees above the 74°F climatological normal for Miami. Recent model runs show minimal cooling potential, keeping the minimum temperature most likely between 76°F and 80°F on May 17. This atmospheric setup, driven by elevated sea-surface temperatures in the Florida Straits and absence of any frontal passages, explains why traders assign the highest implied probability to the 78-79°F bracket. Updated short-range model guidance expected over the next 48 hours could refine these odds if subtle wind shifts or increased cloud cover develop.