**Traders assign a 63.5% probability to “No” on Alaska’s November 3, 2026, Ballot Measure 2 because recent polling and funding patterns point to continued rejection of repeal.** A late September to early October 2026 survey showed 53% opposed and 47% in favor, consistent with the 2024 repeal effort’s narrow failure by under 1 percentage point. The current initiative bundles ranked-choice voting and top-four primary repeal with elimination of 2020 campaign-finance disclosure rules, a combination that has drawn criticism even from some repeal supporters and contrasts with strong voter backing for new contribution limits passed in August 2026. Opponents of the measure have raised several times more than proponents, enabling heavier advertising against the package. These factors—modest polling leads for retention, the bundled provisions, and resource disparities—underpin the current trader consensus that the ballot measure is unlikely to pass.