Recent polling from Alaska Survey Research shows Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leading incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by five to seven points in head-to-head matchups, a narrow edge that has held across March and April surveys. Peltola’s strong first-quarter fundraising—nearly four times Sullivan’s total—has fueled extensive volunteer recruitment and advertising in a race shaped by Alaska’s jungle primary and ranked-choice voting system. Traders appear to weigh these factors alongside national midterm dynamics and Sullivan’s alignment with federal policies on tariffs and foreign affairs. Minor candidates remain at negligible levels, reflecting limited viability in the general election. The contest remains closely contested, with turnout and ranked-choice vote redistribution serving as key variables ahead of November.