Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government secured a majority in the House of Commons through three by-elections on April 13, 2026, and subsequent floor crossings, removing any immediate need to dissolve Parliament. Under Canada’s fixed-date election rules, the next contest is scheduled for October 2029, and a sitting majority typically avoids an early call unless facing a loss of confidence or strategic opportunity. Traders assign 98.8 percent probability to no election by June 30 because the current parliamentary arithmetic and polling stability provide little incentive for dissolution in the next six weeks. The only realistic paths to an earlier vote would involve sudden defections that erase the majority or an unexpected non-confidence motion, both of which remain distant based on recent seat counts and party positioning.